Dominic Harrison, Director of Public Health for Blackburn with Darwen Council, said: “I’m very pleased that Public Health England has published this initial analysis of the national data related to rising mortality in older people (over 65) in England. The data  confirms our local concerns and shows that a very significant number of Local Authorities in England have seen a reduction or levelling off in life expectancy in those over 85 (and younger – in some cases over 65) since 2010.  
They suggest three possible reasons why this may be happening but stress this trend needs a more detailed analysis. They  have committed Public Health England to establishing a national expert panel to examine it further. 
They suggest the reasons for the observed decline may be :
-	A statistical data anomaly
-	Flu
-	Weather
They claim to have found no relationship between deprivation and the declining [life expectancy] observed. 

I will be discussing this further with the authors and Public Health England. 

However, the report has not looked at any relationship between cuts in Adult Social Care by Local Authority and declines in mortality in those over 65 or 85 , nor has it mapped other Local Authority cuts that could reasonably be expected to contribute to increased vulnerability in frail elderly populations such as cuts to Local Authority housing improvement programmes or  meals on wheels services (etc) since 2010. 

Over the last 10 years, Adult Social Care budgets in England have been cut by 20% and since 2010, funding for Meals on Wheels services by 63%.
It is an unlikely, improbable and a frankly heroic assumption to  assume that cuts such as these will have no effect at all on frail elderly populations over 85 years old.

A key role of public health is to exercise ‘vigilance through  foresight’ on behalf of the most vulnerable. Foresight is the ability to discern important trends through the fog of weak or distant data signals.  We need to do this so that we can identify preventable causes of avoidable death and manage or prevent those risks before they affect (or infect) the whole population. 

This data revealed by the PHE report is a ‘sentinel warning’. It confirms that in a significant number of English local Authorities, the old are no longer getting older – and I agree with Public Health England’s conclusion  that we urgently need find out why.