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It is not just a bed that patients need. medical and ancillary staff are quite important. So bed occupancy rates are obviously not the whole story. However simple queuing theory will tell you that to be able to admit patients as the need arises spare capacity has to be present. Failure to so provide leads to a vicious spiral of poor staff utilisation and bad medical decisions. This is just the beginning. Ministers are thinking they are playing with a toy gun when it is actually a lethal weapon.