Academics have warned MPs the pace of the government’s reforms on commissioning will endanger the NHS, even if they are good policies in principle.

In evidence to the Commons health committee inquiry on commissioning, Cambridge University professor of health services research Martin Roland said: “My prediction is that it’s going to look fairly terrible in three to four years’ time.

“The key issue is whether this, or any other government, is going to have the patience to see things through,” he told MPs.

King’s Fund chief executive Professor Chris Ham said: “I think there are significant risks in going so far so quickly, even if the government’s objectives are the right objectives. I hope I am wrong, I hope we can navigate successfully through the current situation.”

The hearing was the third the committee, chaired by Stephen Dorrell, has heard on commissioning with three more scheduled this year.

Others giving evidence included Nuffield Trust director Jennifer Dixon and professor Julian Le Grand, from the London School of Economics.

Dr Dixon said it was unclear whether the Care Quality Commission or the new National Commissioning Board would have responsibility for ensuring continuity of services in the transition period.

She said: “There is going to be a lot of turbulence and there needs to be some regulatory or national oversight as to what’s happening on access to care, some process measures, because there could be quite a lot of chaos, some services disappearing and cuts here, there and everywhere.”