Hospitals pass peak of second wave

Bed occupancy in the second wave peaked across England on 23 November at 13,767 and has since fallen by over 10 per cent to 12,291.

The seven NHS regions saw their hospital occupancy peak at different points. The North East and Yorkshire and North West regions recorded their highest bed occupancy on 16 November, with 3,400 and 3,059 respectively. The South East meanwhile topped out at 1,273 on 25 November.

For the purpose of this analysis, the first wave ended on 31 August and the second started on 1 September. Nationally, fewer beds were occupied by covid patients in the second wave than in the first, in which it peaked at 17,712.

A large portion of the disparity can be put down to London. The capital took the brunt of the first wave, with a maximum daily occupancy of 4,813, on 8 April. Its maximum in the second wave was 1,534 – less than 32 per cent of the first – on 23 November.

The North East and Yorkshire, North West, Midlands and South West all saw occupancy surpass levels recorded in the first wave. The NEY region reported 2,757 beds occupied with covid patients on 28 November, which is still more than 7 per cent above the first wave peak (2,567).

Patients can spend several weeks in hospital beds before they either recover to be discharged or succumb to the virus, which means bed occupancy data lags behind hospital admissions.

Admissions have been falling nationally since peaking at 10,829 in the week up to 14 November. Most of England’s regions peaked at least two weeks ago but London and the South East saw admissions peak on 21 November and 25 November respectively.

HSJ analysis last week showed there are were still multiple trusts where pressures were still rising albeit, in most cases, rising much more slowly than previous weeks. 

Covid deaths in hospital nationally are still climbing, also albeit slowly. Deaths are falling in the North West and are still rising or have plateaued in the other regions. This reflects the North West passing the peak of the second wave before the rest of the country.

Three health systems in the South West produced sizeable increases in the number of covid patients who died in hospital in recent weeks.

The seven-day total hospital deaths in Bath and North East Somerset, Swindon and Wiltshire increased from 4 on 16 November to 18 on 23 November.

Deaths in the hospitals of Somerset increased from 7 to 22 over the same period. And in Gloucestershire, they doubled from 12 to 24.

Deaths also more than doubled in the North Central London system, increasing from 8 to 21.