Number of trusts predicting 2011-12 deficit trebles compared with last year - DH report

At the end of June six trusts were forecasting they would finish this financial year in the red, compared with just two in June 2010, according to the DH’s first quarterly report for 2011-12.

Among them, South London Healthcare was forecasting a deficit of £65m, Barking Havering and Redbridge Hospitals Trust £40m, Imperial College Healthcare £30m, Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals £19m, North West London Hospitals £10m and Surrey and Sussex Healthcare £6m.

There were also three primary care trusts – Haringey, Enfield, and Barnet – forecasting deficits of £20m, £19m, and £17m respectively. At the same point last year no PCTs were predicting deficit.

In 2010-11 the numbers of organisations that finished the year in deficit rose compared with their June predictions, to two PCTs and seven trusts.

The DH’s latest edition of “The Quarter”, released today, also shows that the magnitude of the financial problems affecting the most challenged providers has grown in 2011-12, the first year of the NHS’s four year £20bn savings drive.

The six trusts predicting deficit are predicting an aggregate loss of £170m – just £61m lower than the aggregate surplus predicted by all other trusts in England.

However, the report states that overall the health service was forecasting a healthy surplus at the end of the first quarter. SHAs and PCTs are forecasting an overall surplus of £1,165 million, added to the £61 million operating surplus forecast by trusts.

It adds that while the NHS is in the early years of its £20bn quality, innovation, productivity and prevention (QIPP) savings drive, first quarter results are justified “cautious optimism”.

“At a national level, the NHS has maintained and improved performance on key quality measures,

while sustaining a healthy financial position,” it states. “We are beginning to see progress on important measures of sustainability such as activity rates, while significant progress has been made on implementation of the modernisation agenda.”

It adds: “In total, PCTs are seeking £5.9 billion of savings, meaning that if all savings were achieved we would be slightly ahead of schedule on the delivery of savings.”

However, the report does not give any information on specific delivery of these financial savings. It states that it will begin to do so with the next quarterly report.