Revealed: the biggest winners from the NHS funding boost

NHS England decided to allocate £1.1bn of the extra 2015-16 funding directly to CCGs, and to give much bigger increases to those that are a long way behind their “target” budgets under its allocation formula.

HSJ has analysed the impact of the resulting revised allocations, which were published by the national body shortly before Christmas.

We compared the percentage allocation growth CCGs had been expecting in 2015-16, based on indicative NHS England figures from December 2013, with the allocation growth they will now receive under the post-autumn statement revised figures.

There are 54 CCGs whose growth has been increased by more than 3 percentage points as a result of the new allocations. These CCGs account for £579m extra growth - more than half the £1.1bn total national increase.

Focusing the funds on CCGs that are behind their target allocations means there is variation in impact by NHS England area team (see map, above).

There are also more CCGs and health economies with financial problems in the areas receiving the greatest increases (see table, below).

Of the 54 CCGs whose growth is rising by more than 3 percentage points, nine forecast overspending in 2014-15. They will receive average cash terms growth in 2015-16 of more than 6 per cent, while inflation is only 1.4 per cent.

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• Autumn statement confirms increase in NHS spending
• NHS England decides on 2015-16 allocations
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NHS England said last month that its decision to focus the money on behind target areas would have the effect of “directing funding where possible to those health economies under financial pressure”.

Targeting funding at the groups behind their target also has the effect of giving the greatest increases to areas with the higher rates of potential life years lost to conditions amenable to healthcare, a key national indicator of health outcomes. However, as the table shows, these areas generally already have higher per capita allocations, which remains the case after the allocation revisions.

Analysis of the impact by parliamentary constituency, using information from consultancy Incisive Health, shows that CCGs covering areas with Conservative MPs, and to a lesser extent Liberal Democrats, have, on average, received bigger increases (see table).

Meanwhile, senior finance sources in several geographical areas told HSJ that some CCGs would have to revise their 2015-16 plans because their new allocations were smaller than they had planned for, despite the overall health budget increase.

This is caused by a combination of three factors.

First, some groups are receiving only very slightly more growth than they were due to previously.

Second, some had expected to receive “resilience” funding on top of their allocations, but NHS England has now said they will not.

Finally, some groups had not anticipated the impact of reductions in their “baseline” allocations during 2014-15, which have been agreed with NHS England where CCGs had previously been given too much funding in error.