Leading CEO calls for national funding as mental health referrals predicted to rise by one third

A review commissioned by Mersey Care Foundation Trust, shared with HSJ, has predicted that referrals for mental health services in Liverpool and Sefton will rise by 31 per cent over the next two years, compared to pre-covid levels .

The review, carried out by an NHS consultancy unit hosted by Midlands and Lancashire Commissioning Support Unit , predicting that two-thirds of the increased demand would occur in the next 12 months.

Financial calculations by Mersey Care showed it would need a funding increase of between 4.3 per cent and 8.6 per cent in 2020-21, the equivalent of between £5.5m to £10.9m, to meet demand.

For 2021-22 there would need to be a funding increase of between 1.8 per cent and 3.5 per cent, the equivalent of £2.2m and £4.5m. 

As a result of the impact of coronavirus, NHS England has told trusts to prepare for a potential increase in demand for mental health care, but no national forecasts have been published.

The analysis suggested services that will see the biggest growth in referrals include; talking therapies, adult community mental health, and emergency mental health services such as crisis resolution home treatment teams.

Joe Rafferty, chief executive for Mersey Care FT said: “There is no doubt that demand on all services that are providing mental health support to people is set to significantly increase.

“As we plan for this locally it is important that national planning supports us to deliver. We have seen significant increases in investment to respond to the physical health demands of covid-19 and I would like to see parity of esteem to allow for a similar response to the impact on the mental health of our population.

“In the past there has been an argument that we haven’t had numbers and sufficiently sophisticated planning and prediction modelling. I really believe this sort of population health planning no longer makes it possible to claim that investment cannot be justified or the return on investment objectively verified.”

The population of Liverpool and Sefton was segmented into several “at risk” groups, with each group mapped to various conditions such as anxiety and depression. These conditions were then mapped to the trust’s service lines.

A spokeswoman for Department of Health and Social Care, said: “We recognise the impact this pandemic has had on people’s mental health and we will continue to gather evidence and assess the potential longer-term mental health impacts.”

The DHSC said it has provided £9.2m to charities to support adults and children affected by the pandemic.