Hospital inspections in marginal seats could swing general election

According to consultancy Incisive Health, around one in five of the 76 acute trusts that have been inspected or are due to be inspected by the Care Quality Commission are in marginal constituencies.

Nine of these 17 are in constituencies on the Conservative target list and eight are on Labour’s list.

Ten trusts in these target constituencies have already been rated “inadequate” or “requiring improvement” following CQC inspections. Five of these are on the Labour target seats list and five are Conservative targets.

The analysis indicates that several government MPs could be in danger of losing their seats as a result of negative CQC inspections of hospitals in their constituencies. This group includes: Bob Blackman in Harrow East (Royal National Orthopaedic Hospital Trust), Ben Gummer in Ipswich (Ipswich Hospital Trust) and Paul Maynard in Blackpool North and Cleveleys (Blackpool Teaching Hospitals Foundation Trust).

According to Incisive Health, inspection reports can influence election campaigns, especially when the CQC delivers negative verdicts about the state of care in local hospitals.

Ben Nunn, account director of the consultancy, said: “MPs and prospective parliamentary candidates will be watching the results of their local CQC inspections like a hawk.

“How hospitals respond to these inspections and whether they can deliver the necessary improvements in time could be decisive in how the health debate plays out in marginal seats at next year’s election.”

• Video: Watch HSJ’s webinar on the CQC inspection regime
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A national survey funded by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft in October found that “improving the NHS” was the most important issue to respondents.

And a poll conducted by Survation for the union Unite ahead of last week’s by-election in Rochester and Strood found the quality of local NHS hospitals and GP services in the area was the most important issue to constituents.