Exclusive: Leaked data gives first view of growing cancer waiting list post covid peak

The leaked data reveals part of the cancer waiting list in the wake of the first pandemic peak, during which much diagnostic and elective cancer care was paused.

It reveals the number of people who had been waiting for a test, the outcome of a test, or for treatment for more than 34 days. NHS England and Improvement only publish waiting times for patients who have been treated – not the number still waiting – so this information has been secret.

The data, obtained from official emails seen by HSJ, showed the total number of people on the waiting list who had been waiting more than 34 days increased from 50,000 to around 58,000, between the start of August and the middle of September. 

Of the 6,400 people recorded to be waiting more than 104 days on 13 September, 472 had a “decision to treat classification”, meaning they have cancer and are awaiting treatment. 

Meeting the three month (104 day) target was one of the priorities highlighted in the NHS recovery plan included in the recent ’phase three’ letter from NHS England. This strategy appears to be working, as those waiting 104 days has decreased by around 40 per cent — from 10,500 to 6,400 — between the start of August and mid-September. The fall in those with a decision to treat waiting more than three months was around a third over the same period. 

The North East and Yorkshire and London regions had the most people waiting more than 104 days as of 13 September, while the South West — which was less affected by coronavirus than elsewhere — appears to be performing the best on this measure. 

NHS England has said reducing the cancer waiting list would be overseen by a national “taskforce”, which is being chaired by national director for cancer Peter Johnson.

Experts have warned the delays already stored up in the system could cost tens of thousands of lives as patients go undiagnosed or have their diagnosis and treatment later than they otherwise would.

HSJ asked NHS England if harm reviews had been carried out for those on the waiting list and whether it had discovered if those waiting longer than104 days had been harmed, but did not receive an answer.

A NHS England spokesman said: “Over four-fifths of cancer treatment were maintained as staff treated around 110,000 covid-19 patients, and more than 200,000 patients got cancer care during that time [the first covid peak]. Treatments now are returning to pre-pandemic volumes, with radiotherapy and chemotherapy recovering to normal levels.”

Public NHS England data shows 41,000 patients treated on the 62-day cancer pathway from April to July this year, down from 56,000 in the same period last year. In that period in 2019, 2,900 of those treated had waited more than 104 days. In the same period in 2020 the number had grown to 3,400.

This story was amended to make clear it referred to part of the total waiting list, for patients already waiting more than 34 days.