• HSMR rises to 117.8 at Dartford and Gravesham Trust
  • Trust now seeking help from Dr Foster and RCP

A trust has said it ‘cannot fully explain’ a high mortality rate which has led it to seek support from intelligence firm Dr Foster and a royal college.

According to papers for its April board meeting, Dartford and Gravesham Trust’s hospital standardised mortality ratio rose to 117.8 in November 2020, which it describes as “significantly higher than expected”. This is up from 113 in September 2020. 

The papers added the rise is not necessarily linked to covid and a rise in mortality was seen prior to the pandemic.

However, another measure of mortality — the summary hospital mortality index — is within normal range at 104.81 and the trust said it cannot explain this disparity between the two. Its “crude” mortality rate for diagnoses captured by HSMR is also slightly lower than its peer group, at 3.2 per cent against a 3.6 per cent benchmark.

In a statement to HSJ, the trust said: “Whilst we cannot fully explain the disparity, we are taking a precautionary approach to managing the HSMR… the trust has embarked on a mortality quality improvement programme incorporating support from Dr Foster and a patient safety lead from the Royal College of Physicians to improve learning from deaths and embedding into practice to ensure delivery of care to a high standard with outcomes measured well against our peers.”

The trust added it was focusing on patient groups highlighted in the data. For example, it is: looking at benchmarked safety data following an alert for “other perinatal conditions” to make sure there is not a safety issue and to address coding anomalies; trying to reduce the time taken to get patients with fractured neck of femur to theatre; and carrying out “deep dives” into patient deaths from sepsis and pneumonia.

The statement continued: “We take the HSMR seriously and we have reflected this data through our board report to ensure our patients and public are kept informed and updated on progress.”

How mortality is measured

HSMR aims to forecast how many patients might be expected to die at each trust, given their characteristics, and compares this with the actual number who died. An HSMR of 100 means the actual number of deaths is equal to the number expected.

SHMI has a similar methodology but includes deaths which occur within 30 days of discharge.

Patients with covid have been excluded from both measures. Rachel Meacock, a senior lecturer in health economics at Manchester University, told HSJ this could mean the HSMR indicator is misleading.

“If you are in a high covid area, more of your vulnerable population, who are likely to die anyhow, will have covid and will be excluded [from the HSMR calculations],” she said. “It is hard to make the judgement about what it would do to your HSMR but it would affect trusts differently.”

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