A struggling West Midlands trust has warned its deficit could reach £144m, which is more than double its official forecast.

A “worst case” scenario identified by University Hospitals of North Midlands Trust, in Staffordshire, would represent the largest deficit in the provider sector.

After the first nine months of the year, the trust was officially forecasting a year end deficit of £67m for 2017-18. However, its actual year to date deficit was £84m, around £3m worse than planned.

In board papers published on 5 February, the trust warned that its plan includes £35m of income assumptions that “require regulators’ intervention”, while £10m of potential commissioner penalties could cause further deterioration.

In a statement, the trust also confirmed its plan includes £9.9m of funding from the Department of Health and Social Care and £14.9m of funding from NHS England, which has not yet been confirmed.

This relates to funding promised for the trust’s County Hospital site in Stafford under the “trust special administrator model”, following the dissolution of Mid Staffordshire Foundation Trust.

Staffordshire has been identified by NHS Improvement and NHS England as one of the most financially challenged health economies in the country and in July was rated as one of the Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships which needed the “most improvement.”