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1:54 - agree last observation. During Q4 shadow period last year the theory of "self financing" to quote PB worked, as a theory. Since then, committments have been made against funding allocated (not a crime really) and in many cases legally binding expenditure contracts formalised.
Therefore you are spot on - the over funded baselines will indeed have evaporated in the main, leaving the under funded baselines (LAT spec comm, plus other LAT and CCGs as appropriate) exposed. My neighbouring LAT is looking for £70m fundng baseline recovery last time I checked, and had signed contracts assuming full recovery! Others will be similar.
At the end of May we were all asked to balance system budget planning assumptions through "potential transfers" in the ledger but this was NOT the same as agreement. We were explicit on this. It felt like a "Yes, minister" sketch to be honest as the exercise was simply so that the centre could be assured of balance against the £100bn national budget. No-one should be assured at all as we locally agreed side emails explicitly confirming that we did not agree!
This will crash. Sorry.
Today, no-one knows REALLY where they are financially, but when this has fully unwound - presumably end of the year when budgets become irrelevant and actuals become real and audited - individual organisations (and their CFOs, often inexperienced, for no direct fault of their own) will be exposed sadly.
You could not make this up.