HSJ’s round up of the day’s must read stories and analysis

Smith and Mackey confirm exit plans

Leading NHS Improvement is a tough job, and there will be big shoes to fill when Jim Mackey leaves the regulator.

In an announcement revealing that chair Ed Smith is retiring this year, NHSI also confirmed that Mr Mackey will stand down as chief executive in October as originally planned. He is on a two year secondment from Northumbria Healthcare FT.

Mr Smith’s departure will be a year earlier than expected, however, “to allow a new chair to be appointed in time to lead the search for a successor chief executive”.

No departure date has yet been set as he has agreed to stay on until his replacement has been found.

HSJ readers have already started making their suggestions about who should next take NHSI’s top jobs.

Where the risk is

Analysis by HSJ shows which providers must deliver the largest savings in the final three months of 2016-17, and which therefore present most risk to the sector’s year-end position.

As reported last week, figures published by NHS Improvement have forecast a provider sector year-end deficit of £873m, against the maximum control total of a £580m deficit.

However, the actual run rates in the first nine months of the year suggest that a major improvement must be delivered in the final quarter to hit this forecast.

If the average performance in the first nine months is projected across the whole year, the sector would report a deficit of £1.14bn. Around 80 out of 237 trusts were behind the average run rate required to meet their forecasts after the first nine months of 2016-17.

We have also revealed that 40 NHS trusts set to miss their financial targets have received almost £200m from the national STF intended to reward trusts for good performance.

5YFV Mark II

At the end of month, the NHS will turn its attention to the new Five Year Forward View “delivery plan” – trailed in an HSJ interview with Simon Stevens last year.

In his latest expert briefing, Dave West looks at what to expect from the plan.

He says: “Forward view Mark 1 was warmly welcomed by every interest group worth their salt, signed by the full set of NHS quangos, and showered with praise across the political divide.

“The delivery plan might have a bumpier ride. We’ve seen two more years of performance decline, the finances are on a precipice, and Simon Stevens has been dipping into his political capital (not to mention the actual capital).”