Current reasons for admission Rapid deterioration and need for ventilation.
Some admissions related to non-compliance with medication.
Some admissions related to another chronic illness.
Changes envisaged by 2008 Primary care to play a more active role in case management.
Increased availability of equipment in primary care and the community.
Increased patient empowerment - for example, antibiotics and equipment in the home.
Improved drug therapy - for example, steroids without side-effects.
Trends in incidence Difficult to forecast. Increased pollution could increase incidence, but will environmental controls have an impact?
Impact of health promotion - similarly difficult to estimate.
Scenario for 2008 Increased role in primary care.
Acute admissions to reduce by about 70 per cent.