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Published: 04/09/2003, Volume II3, No. 5871 Page 18

What kind of expectations does the individualistic baby-boomer generation have as it reaches old age, asks Demos.

Lyn Whitfield looks at their findings

The UK population is ageing.

The country already has more over 60s than under 16s, and the number will grow.

By 2050, there will be 47 people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 15-64, compared to 24 now. Even more strikingly, the number of 'old old', or over 80s, will increase rapidly, to 4.9 million from 2.4 million now.

A new report from thinktank Demos says this change is usually presented 'as a burden and a cost'. Economists and newspapers predict a pensions 'crisis', policy makers worry about how the NHS will cope and who will care for a generation that has more fragile marital and family relationships than the one before it.

Demos takes a less gloomy view. In essence, it argues that while the future will certainly be different, it does not follow that it will be worse.

However, it also argues that society will be shaped by the values of the ageing generation, so it is important for policy makers to take account of them.

The UK has seen two peaks in birth rates since the Second World War, a big one in 1945 and a slightly smaller one in 1965. The people born between these two peaks are the 'baby boomers' and The New Old argues they have two, distinct characteristics.

Firstly, they are more individualistic than their parents, who lived through the Second World War and founded the welfare state, and secondly they are more socially and politically liberal.

The New Old argues this has important implications. For example, it suggests the baby boomers' individualism is driving consumer-oriented reform in public services such as the NHS.At the same time, The New Old points out that the baby boomers have helped bring about a more 'permissive' society.

Such liberal attitudes, the report suggests, could lead to demands for further extensions of personal freedom - including the right to die.

However, there are tensions between individualism and liberalism and The New Old suggests that the boomers could 'coalesce' into three groups, which it calls the selfish generation, the civic defenders and the invisible elders.

The first is likely to pursue its own ends, with little regard for the less well off, while the civic defenders try to 'act as a civic bulwark against the erosion of the public realm' that their own individualism and consumerism has helped to unleash.

The implication, of course, is that the group that gains the upper hand will have a major say in the sort of society the UK becomes as its population ages.

Meanwhile, The New Old argues that surveys of baby boomer attitudes provide clues to the sort of old age they want;

and therefore the support services they will need to achieve it.

For example, it points out that baby boomers have pioneered new ways of working, and are therefore likely to resist attempts to force them to work inflexibly into 'retirement'.

Equally, female baby boomers may resent attempts to push them back into traditional care roles.

To take account of this, Demos says the idea of 'retirement' should be redefined.New paths in and out of work, learning and leisure should be found, along with ways to engage the baby boomers with their communities.

At the same time, it says the government needs to find new ways of supporting the cycle of family life, so individuals can manage to work, bring up children and care for elders (though its most practical proposal is 'granny crèches').

The New Old, which was prepared with the support of Age Concern, argues this new agenda must be embraced if the baby boomers are to continue their tradition of civic liberalism.

Poverty hits the young hard in modern society, yet the baby boomers' children ('Generation X') already struggle to support their elders, plan their own futures and invest adequately in their children. Selfish 'grey politics' devoted to securing more resources for pensions and healthcare could be disastrous. l The New Old: why the baby boomers will not be pensioned off By Julia Huber and Paul Skidmore.

Published by Demos, with Age Concern.

www. demos. co. uk