politics

When the press gallery heard that Frank Dobson had made quite a definite promise to cut hospital waiting lists by 100,000 by next April, some of us dashed off to find Alan Milburn. 'Hey, it looks as if Dobbo has decided to run for mayor of London, after all, ' we cried. 'And he's leaving you to pick up the pieces.'

This joke did not play too well. But who cares? After the secretary of state had told the Commons that a dreadful winter or major epidemic could yet thwart him - 'Perhaps Tory MPs think we could cope with the arrival of an asteroid, ' he replied to their taunts - his Treasury colleague, Alastair Darling, whispered, 'Asteroids are no excuse, Frank.'

With New Labour you can never be quite sure when they're in a humorous mood. But, as you know, Iron Gordon's second Budget went pretty well, and Mr Dobson's explanation of the chancellor's£500m NHS largesse on day two did likewise. The underdog in me can't help but notice how hard it is for the once-mighty Tories to make an impact, not when the media, the CBI, the TUC and Co have all been squared. But, after 18 years, they had it coming.

I can best illustrate the point by citing the repeated attempts the Liberal Democrats and Tories made to dent the Budget finances.

The Lib Dems insisted that the chancellor had been deliberately pessimistic about the inflow of taxes (and thus about the falling levels of public borrowing) so that he could be more generous to the NHS and schools if he wished.

They also said that inflation would be slightly worse (3 per cent instead of 2.75), and thus make that extra£500m worth only£250m. For the Conservatives, John Maples hammered away at Labour's 'breathless hypocrisy' on waiting lists: up 100,000 since 1 May instead of down. As for spending levels, they are lower than the Tory years, 2 per cent over two years (this year and next) compared with a Thatcher/Major average of 3.1 per cent.

Mr Maples issued some detailed figures, drawn up by 'experts', to show that the NHS is£385m behind by the time we have counted higher inflation, pay drift, abolition of compulsory competitive tendering, plus all those oldsters who are back in the NHS because Mr Brown cut off their BUPA tax breaks etc etc.

I'm sure he's half right. But the brutal fact is that voters don't yet mind. I once heard Mr Dobson say, 'The public don't give a toss. They didn't give a toss about it when we were in Opposition either.' By which I think he means that when people feel progress is being made they give the government the benefit of any doubt. What Dobbo wants is for Unison, the NHS Confederation and the BMA to say, 'well done, thanks'. Not, 'we need more'. That's bad psychology, he tells them - it only makes the Treasury start muttering 'bottomless pit'.

Thus Dobson - politics' answer to Dr Jolly - has toured the TV studios (and the Treasury) saying that NHS staff did 'brilliantly' coping with the winter crisis (what winter? ) on that extra£300m, and can do so again if everyone chips in. But woe betide those who don't. He's checking the legal position, and can sack trust or HA chairs and non-execs if they don't push forward the efficiency drive. Some people are bloody marvellous, a few are not.

With similar vigour Dobbo the Jolly swept aside the percentage issue on TV: 2 per cent? Or 3? He doesn't believe the NHS deflator (ie, its special measure of inflation within health costs) is relentlessly higher than everything else. He does believe he can cajole the NHS to perform better and Iron Gordon to cough up again. 'As long as it's not just a stunt, not just for one year, ' the consultants wearily tell ministers.

I rang one Tory MP who has cast aspersions on Dobsonism. Crispin Blunt is Reigate's new man, and he wants Mr Dobson to know that last May he collected detailed waiting list stats, in each specialty, from his local hospital, the East Surrey. He's keeping them to see if Labour delivers. 'My gut instinct is that we squeezed as much efficiency out of the system as could be had without a lot of extra money, ' he told me.

One fascinating statistic Mr Blunt did not know is this: that NHS waiting lists have never gone down for more than five quarters - 15 months - before the upward cycle starts again. Dobbo needs them to keep going down for 12 quarters. Good luck, minister. Or do I mean Mr Mayor?