Hospital covid deaths triple since start of September

The 117 patients who died between 14 and 20 September is the highest weekly total recorded since 23 July, and the increase in deaths in September marks the first consistent increase since the peak of the first coronavirus wave in April.

Unlike previous short-lived upticks in covid hospital deaths, the increases are not driven by fatalities within one or two individual trusts. Nor is one region driving the growth as has been the case in the past.

There has been little change in death numbers in the east, south east and south west regions. However, the seven-day death total in the north east and Yorkshire region went from seven to 32 between 3 and 20 September. The north west saw numbers rise from 12 to 34 in the same period, followed by London (3 to 17) and the Midlands (7 to 16).

The sharp contrast between the north and south of the country during the second peak is demonstrated by the fact that the north west saw the same number of covid hospital deaths (34) in the seven days to 20 September that the south west saw in the previous 92 days, the south east in the previous 34, London in the previous 33 and the eastern region in the previous 24.

The national seven-day total on 20 September represented just over 2 per cent of that seen at the height of the first wave - in early April - and deaths are accelerating much more slowly, doubling approximately once every 10 days as opposed to every four days during the period in mid-March when the numbers of fatalities were similar.

However, NHS England advises that figures recorded after 17 September are likely to be revised upwards, meaning the absolute number and rate of growth is likely to be greater than currently recorded.

Covid hospital fatalities in the north east and Yorkshire are approaching 5 per cent of the peak and are doubling approximately once every six days.

Deaths in the north west are nearly 4 per cent of the peak but have more or less plateaued since 9 September.

The 30-day running total of deaths, which lags the seven-day indicator but gives a better sense of long-term trends has increased from a low of 253 (1.4 per cent of peak) on 10 September to 317 (1.7 per cent) on 20 September.

New covid cases in hospital have risen from a seven-day total low of 318 on 22 August to 1,394 on 20 September. This is equivalent to the number seen at the start of July and represents 7 per cent of the peak recorded on 7 April.

New hospital cases in the north east and Yorkshire have risen from a seven-day low of 52 on 19 August to 368 on 20 September. Levels this high have not been recorded since 10 June and are equivalent to 13 per cent of the April peak.