NHS predicts 25pc lower surplus for 2012-13

The first Department of Health figures for 2012-13, contained in The Quarter report by NHS deputy chief executive David Flory, show PCTs and SHAs forecasting a net surplus of £1.2bn this year, compared to the £1.6bn they achieved in 2011-12.

Last year’s achievement exceeded the predictions made in the first quarter of 2011-12, which saw the same bodies predict a surplus of £1.2bn.

The forecast for this year is that only one PCT will end 2012-13 in deficit. NHS North Yorkshire and York is predicting an overspend of £19m on its £1.2bn budget.

The government has previously indicated that when clinical commissioning groups take-over most of the budgets of primary care trusts in April 2013 they will not inherit deficits.

Barnet, Enfield and Haringey PCTs ended the financial year 2011-12 with a combined deficit of £48m.

The predictions from the acute trust sector are more optimistic than this time last year.

Five hospital trusts are forecasting deficits totalling £160m: Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals, South London Healthcare, Mid Yorkshire Hospitals, Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals and North West London Hospitals.

This forecast is more optimistic than last year’s predicted and actual acute trust deficits, which were £170m and £176.2m respectively.

The NHS ended 2011-12 with 10 trusts in deficit. The first instalment of The Quarter for 2011-12 had predicted only six would fall into this category.

The document shows three large trusts that ended last year in deficit are now predicting a break-even position by the end of 2012-13: Imperial College Healthcare, Mid Essex Hospital Services and Surrey and Sussex Healthcare.

Overall hospital activity was up on the same quarter in 2011-12, the figures said.

GP referrals rose 2.5 per cent and other referrals for a first outpatient appointment were up by 5.9 per cent.

Emergency activity rose 2.4 per cent.

The Quarter also shows the NHS is forecasting £5.1bn in quality, innovation, productivity and prevention savings for 2012-13, and that £1.2bn has been delivered so far this financial year.

The DH expects acute trusts to save £2.7bn over the course of the financial year.

The Quarter shows a deterioration in trusts’ progress through the foundation trust pipeline over the summer months.

Only one of the 103 trusts not yet authorised by Monitor achieved foundation trust between June and August. Scarborough and North East Yorkshire Healthcare Trust merged with York Hospitals Foundation Trust after the DH agreed supporting payments.

Of the 102 remaining, the numbers rated ‘green’ and ‘amber-green’ on the DH progress dashboard fell by eight, while those whose progress was rated ‘red’ or ‘amber-red’ rose by seven. In total , 63 were rated ‘red’ or  ‘amber-red’.