Published: 14/11/2002, Volume II2, No. 5813 Page 9

The NHS may not survive in its current form unless the serious shortage of medical, nursing and other staff is solved, NHS Confederation vice-chair Trevor Campbell Davis has warned.

'Between now and the next election we will probably find ourselves facing the most seminal period for the future of the health service. Under threat is whether we have a provider NHS or not: there is a real possibility we may not in its present form, ' he said.

Despite the pressure on chief executives to deliver national and local targets, not enough discussion has focused on the workforce, without whom the targets cannot be achieved, Mr Campbell Davis, chief executive of the Whittington Hospital trust, told a joint conference of the King's Fund and the NHS Confederation.

Health and other organisations including local government, housing, social care and workforce development confederations had to work together to make the NHS a more attractive career for people - from school age, he said.

London has 2,750 long-term vacancies in nursing and midwifery - twice the national average, and a 38 per cent turnover rate for nurses in some inner city NHS trusts, as well as high vacancy rates in general practice, physiotherapy and occupational therapy, the conference heard.

King's Fund director of health policy Dr Jennifer Dixon said:

'The targets for the workforce are much wider than those set out in the NHS plan.

One of the challenges for London is its changing population. Projected figures are for a population rise of 700,000, the size of city like Leeds, by 2016.'

The challenges included planning an NHS infrastructure for the increased population, planning with a variety of agencies, obtaining more data, attending to immediate staff shortages and increasing recruitment among ethnic minorities.

But speakers from local government, housing, social care and health were optimistic that employment and regeneration solutions for London were being found that could be applied to the wider NHS.

Apart from the extra resources for training available through new bodies such as the London WDC and the London Development Agency, delegates were also advised to consider applying to the European Social Fund for help.

North East London WDC chief executive Lucy Moore said that in order to improve recruitment, training and fill vacancies they needed to do things differently, build capacity, widen access, reduce attrition, and create fasttrack training. However, many successful innovations in training and staffing, such as the development of cardiac technical assistants at Bromley Hospitals trust, were lost when pilot project funding ran out, said Helen Bishop, Department of Health regeneration adviser.

She warned: 'We have our backs against the wall and we can't afford to lose expertise.'

The NHS should look for other sources of funding with external partners and regeneration agencies and to look at other ways of working to hold on to their successes, she said.

Greater London Authority health committee deputy chair Meg Hillier hinted that a report due out soon from the authority on London weighting allowances for employees might also help recruitment of NHS workers.

And she told delegates: 'If we can raise the agenda on London weighting we can contribute to solving the problems of the NHS.'